Economic Release Snapshot: Unemployment Falls in September

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of October 3

ISM Manufacturing, September (Monday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing Index: 52.0/52.8
• Actual ISM Manufacturing Index: 50.9

Manufacturer confidence declined by more than expected in September, driven by a slowdown in manufacturing new orders and employment.

International trade balance, August (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior trade balance: –$67.7 billion/–$70.5 billion
• Actual trade balance: –$67.4 billion

The trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in August, as exports increased while imports fell. This brought the trade deficit to its smallest monthly value this year.

ISM Services, September (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services Index: 56.0/56.9
• Actual ISM Services Index: 56.7

Service sector confidence fell modestly during the month yet remained in healthy expansionary territory.

Employment report, September (Friday)

• Expected/prior monthly job growth: 255,000/315,000
• Actual monthly job growth: 263,000
• Expected/prior unemployment rate: 3.7%/3.7%
• Actual unemployment rate: 3.5%

More jobs than expected were added in September, and the July and August reports were revised modestly upwards. The unemployment rate fell back to 3.5 percent during the month, matching the pandemic-era low.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of October 10

Producer Price Index, September (Wednesday)

Economists expect to see producer prices rise in September after declining in August; but, on a year-over-year basis, producer inflation is set to slow.

Consumer Price Index, September (Thursday)

Consumer prices are expected to increase modestly during the month; however, on a year-over-year basis, consumer inflation is projected to slow in September compared to August.

Retail sales, September (Friday)

Retail sales are expected to rise in September, which would mark two consecutive months of sales growth.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment, October preliminary (Friday)

Consumer sentiment is set to improve for the fourth straight month in October.