Economic Release Snapshot: U.S. Economy Contracts in Q2

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of July 25

June durable goods orders (Wednesday) 

• Expected durable goods orders/core durable goods orders: –0.4%/+0.2%
• Actual durable goods orders/core durable goods orders: +1.9%/+0.3%

Durable goods orders increased by more than expected in June, bolstered by a surge in U.S. defense orders for aircraft. Core durable goods orders, which strip out volatile transportation orders, also increased by more than expected, signaling continued business investment in June.

FOMC rate decision (Wednesday) 

• Expected federal funds rate hike: +0.75%
• Actual federal funds rate hike: +0.75%

The Fed hiked the federal funds rate by 75 bps at its July meeting in an attempt to tighten monetary policy in order to combat inflation. This rate hike was largely anticipated by economists and markets given the high level of inflation and strong labor market. 

Second-quarter GDP growth, advance report (Thursday) 

• Expected annualized GDP growth/personal consumption growth: +0.4%/+1.2%
• Actual annualized GDP growth/personal consumption growth: –0.9%/+1.0% 

The first look at second-quarter GDP growth showed that the economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter. Personal consumption showed signs of slower growth during the quarter as well. 

June personal income and personal spending (Friday) 

• Expected personal income growth/personal spending growth: +0.5%/+1.0%
• Actual personal income growth/personal spending growth: +0.6%/+1.1%

Both personal income and spending increased by slightly more than expected in June, marking nine consecutive months with income growth and six straight months of spending growth.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of August 1 

July ISM Manufacturing (Monday) 

• Expected: 52.0
• Actual: 52.8

Manufacturing confidence declined by less than expected in July, and the index remained in expansionary territory during the month. 

July ISM Services (Wednesday)

Service sector confidence is set to decline modestly in July yet remain in expansionary territory. 

June trade balance (Thursday)

The trade deficit is expected to narrow in June, with estimates calling for the smallest monthly deficit since December 2021.

July employment report (Friday)

Economists expect to see 250,000 jobs added during the month, which would represent a strong month for job creation on a historical basis. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6 percent for the fifth consecutive month.