Economic Release Snapshot: Signs of Continued Economic Growth

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of September 16

Retail sales, August (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: ‒0.2%/+1.1%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.1%

Retail sales came in above economist estimates in August, with headline sales rising 0.1 percent against calls for a modest decline. This marked two consecutive months of stronger-than-expected consumer spending growth after a surge in spending in July.

Industrial production, August (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month production change: +0.2%/‒0.9%
• Actual production change: +0.8%

Industrial production rebounded in August following a weather-driven decline in production in July. Manufacturing output rose notably during the month, which helped drive the better-than-expected industrial production growth in August.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, September (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 41/39
• Actual sentiment: 41

Home builder sentiment improved modestly in September, breaking a four-month streak of declining home builder confidence.

Housing starts and building permits, August (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: +6.5%/‒6.9%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: +9.6%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: +1.0%/‒3.3%
• Actual building permits monthly change: +4.9%

Housing starts and building permits came in above economist estimates in August. These improvements brought the pace of new home construction to its fastest pace since April.

FOMC rate decision, September (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior federal funds rate upper limit: 5.25%/5.50%
• Actual federal funds rate upper limit: 5.00%

The Fed surprised many economists by cutting the range for the federal funds rate 50 basis points at the conclusion of its September FOMC meeting. While many economists expected a smaller 25 basis-point reduction, fixed income markets had largely priced in the possibility of a bigger cut and markets rallied immediately following the announcement.

Existing home sales, August (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales change: ‒1.3%/+1.5%
• Actual existing home sales change: ‒2.5%

The pace of existing home sales fell more than expected in August. This decline brought the pace of home sales to a 10-month low.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of September 23

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, September (Tuesday)
Consumer confidence is expected to rise modestly in September after improving more than expected in August.

Durable goods orders, August, preliminary (Thursday)
Headline durable goods orders are set to fall in August after surging in September. The measure of less volatile core goods orders is expected to show a modest improvement during the month.

Personal income and spending, August (Friday)
Personal income and spending are set to rise in August. While spending growth is set to slow compared to July, this could mark an impressive 17 consecutive months of personal spending growth if estimates hold.