Economic Release Snapshot: Service Sector Sentiment Sours in May

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of June 5

ISM Services, May (Monday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services Index: 52.4/51.9
• Actual ISM Services Index: 50.3
  

International trade report, April (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior trade deficit: –$74.6 billion/–$60.6 billion
• Actual trade deficit: –$75.8 billion

The trade deficit widened slightly more than anticipated in April as a sharp drop in exports brought the trade gap to its largest level in six months.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of June 12

Consumer Price Index, May (Tuesday)

Headline and core consumer prices are set to show slowing year-over-year inflation in May, and headline consumer inflation is set to fall to 4.1 percent for the year.

Producer Price Index, May (Wednesday)

Producer inflation is also expected to slow in May, with headline prices set to rise at a 1.5 percent year-over-year rate. While there’s still work to be done to get inflation back to pre-pandemic levels, the May price reports are expected to show continued progress in the Fed’s battle with inflation.

FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

The Fed will release the FOMC rate decision from its June meeting on Wednesday, with most investors and economists expecting no changes to the federal funds rate at this meeting.

Retail sales, May (Thursday)

Core retail sales are set to rise in May, which would mark two consecutive months of core sales growth.

Industrial production, May (Thursday)

Industrial production is expected to increase modestly in May after improving more than expected in April.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, June, preliminary (Friday)

The first estimate for consumer sentiment in June is expected to show a modest improvement for the index. The resolution of the debt ceiling standoff at the start of the month should support confidence going forward, which, in turn, may support further consumer spending growth.