Economic Release Snapshot: Service Sector Confidence Improves in January

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of February 5

ISM Services, January (Monday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 52.0/50.5
• Actual ISM Services index: 53.4

Service sector confidence improved more than expected in January, with the index rising to a four-month high to start the year, partly due to faster hiring and increased orders.

Trade balance, December (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior trade deficit: –$62.0 billion/–$61.9 billion
• Actual trade deficit: –$62.2 billion

The international trade deficit widened modestly in December, driven by a 1.3 percent increase in imports. Despite the increase, the trade deficit shrank notably throughout 2023.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of February 12

Consumer Price Index, January (Tuesday)
The January report is expected to show slowing year-over-year inflation during the month, with headline consumer price growth set to fall from 3.4 percent in December to 2.9 percent in January.

Retail sales, January (Thursday)
Retail sales are set to fall modestly in January following two consecutive months of solid sales growth.

Industrial production, January (Thursday)
Industrial production is expected to improve for the second consecutive month, partly due to a rise in capacity utilization in January.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, February (Thursday)
Home builder confidence is expected to improve modestly in February after rising more than expected in January.

Housing starts and building permits, January (Friday)
These two measures of new home construction are both expected to show signs of moderate growth to start the new year.

Producer Price Index, January (Friday)
Producer prices are expected to increase 0.1 percent on a headline and core basis in January.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, February, preliminary (Friday)
Economists expect to see slightly higher consumer sentiment to start February following two months of notable index improvements.