Economic Release Snapshot: September Hiring Surge

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of September 30

ISM Manufacturing, September (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 47.5/47.2
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 47.2

Manufacturer confidence was unchanged in September against calls for a modest improvement. This result left the index in contractionary territory for the month, signaling continued headwinds for manufacturers. 

ISM Services, September (Thursday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 51.7/51.5
• Actual ISM Services index: 54.9

Service sector confidence improved by much more than expected in September due in large part to a surge in new orders during the month. 

Employment report, September (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +150,000/+159,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +254,000

Hiring surged in September, with an impressive 254,000 jobs added during the month. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, marking a three-month low. 

Reports for the Week of October 7

Trade balance, August (Tuesday)
The trade deficit is set to fall modestly in August after increasing notably in July. 

FOMC meeting minutes, September (Wednesday)
The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting will be closely examined by economists and investors given the changes to monetary policy that were announced at the meeting.

Consumer Price Index, September (Thursday)
Year-over-year consumer inflation is expected to drop to 2.3 percent in September, while core inflation is set to remain unchanged at 3.2 percent.

Producer Price Index, September (Friday)
Headline producer prices are set to rise by 0.1 percent during the month.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment, October, preliminary (Friday)
The first look at consumer sentiment in October is expected to show a modest decline for the index to start the month.