Economic Release Snapshot: Retail Sales Surge in March

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of April 15

Retail sales, March (Monday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +0.4%/+0.9%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.7%

Retail sales grew more than expected in March, with headline and core sales coming in above expectations. This marked two consecutive months of strong retail sales growth after a surprise decline in sales in January.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, April (Monday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 51/51
• Actual sentiment: 51

Home builder sentiment remained unchanged in April, which was a solid result as the index remained in expansionary territory during the month.

Housing starts and building permits, March (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: –2.4%/+12.7%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: –14.7%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: –0.9%/+2.3%
• Actual building permits monthly change: –4.3%

Housing starts and building permits fell more than expected in March. The slowdown brought the pace of new home construction to a seven-month low.

Industrial production, March (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month production change: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Actual production change: +0.4%

Industrial production growth was in line with economist estimates in March, marking two consecutive months of solid production growth.

Existing home sales, March (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales change: –4.1%/+9.5%
• Actual existing home sales change: –4.3%

Existing home sales fell more than expected in March due to high mortgage rates and rising existing home prices.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of April 22

Durable goods orders, March, preliminary (Wednesday)
Headline and core durable goods orders are set to improve in March.

GDP advance report, first quarter (Thursday)
Economists expect to see a solid 2.4 percent annualized growth rate for the economy in the first quarter of 2024.

Personal income and personal spending, March (Friday)
Personal income and spending are expected to rise in March. If estimates hold, this would signal that consumer spending remained resilient throughout the start of 2024 following last week’s strong retail sales report.