Economic Release Snapshot: Retail Sales Continue to Rise

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of July 17

Retail sales, June (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +0.5%/+0.5%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.2%
• Expected/prior month core retail sales monthly change: +0.3%/+0.5%
• Actual core retail sales monthly change: +0.3%

Retail sales grew for the third month in a row in June, but the pace of sales growth slowed during the month. Despite the slowdown in growth in June, this result capped off a positive quarter for sales growth.

Industrial production, June (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month production change: +0%/–0.5%
• Actual production change: –0.5%

Industrial production fell modestly in June for the second consecutive month, partially driven by a slowdown in manufacturing production.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, July (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 56/55
• Actual sentiment: 56

Home builder sentiment continued to improve in July, marking seven months of improved home builder confidence. The uptick in optimism this year translated to faster new home construction, as demand for new homes remained high due to a lack of existing homes available for sale.

Housing starts and building permits, June (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: –9.3%/+15.7%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: –8.0%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: +0.2%/+5.6%
• Actual building permits monthly change: –3.7%

Both housing starts and building permits fell in June after increasing more than expected in May. These measures of new home construction can be quite volatile on a month-to-month basis. Despite the drop in June, the pace of housing starts remained well above the recent lows we saw earlier in the year.

Existing home sales, June (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales monthly change: –2.3%/+0.2%
• Actual existing home sales monthly change: –3.3%

Existing home sales fell more than expected in June, marking two months of declining home sales. A lack of supply, high prices, and still-high mortgage rates have been headwinds for sales growth since the start of 2022.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of July 24

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, July (Tuesday)

Consumer confidence is set to improve in July, with forecasts calling for the index to reach a new 2023 high during the month.

FOMC rate decision, July (Wednesday)

The Fed is expected to hike the upper limit of the federal funds rate 25 bps, from 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent, after its July meeting.

Durable goods orders, June, preliminary (Thursday)

Headline and core durable goods orders are set to increase in June after improving more than expected in May.

2023 second-quarter GDP growth, advanced report (Thursday)

The first look at GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to show an annualized 1.8 percent increase in economic activity during the period, supported by a rise in personal consumption expenditures during the quarter.

Personal income and personal spending, June (Friday)

Personal income and spending are set to increase in June, with spending growth expected to accelerate during the month.