Economic Release Snapshot: Producer Inflation Moderates at Year-End

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of January 17

Retail sales, December (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: –0.9%/–1.0%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: –1.1%
• Expected/prior month core retail sales monthly change: 0.0%/–0.5%
• Actual core retail sales monthly change: –0.7%

Headline and core retail sales both fell more than expected to end the year. This now marks two consecutive months of declining sales growth.

Producer Price Index, December (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.1%/+0.1%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.5%/+0.1%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +7.3%/+6.2%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +6.8%/+5.6%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +6.2%/+5.5%

Producer prices fell more than expected in December due, in part, to falling gas prices. The 0.5 percent decline in headline producer prices during the month was the largest monthly drop since the pandemic-induced lockdowns in early 2020.

Industrial production, December (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month production change: –0.1%/–0.6%
• Actual production change: –0.7%

Industrial production fell more than expected in December, driven by a larger-than-anticipated 1.3 percent decline in manufacturing production.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, January (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 31/31
• Actual sentiment: 35

Home builder sentiment increased modestly in January, marking the first increase for the index since December 2021. Despite the increase during the month, the index still sits in contractionary territory, indicating a continued slowdown for the home construction sector ahead.

Housing starts and building permits, December (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: –4.8%/–1.8%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: –1.4%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: +1.0%/–10.6%
• Actual building permits monthly change: –1.6%

Both housing starts and building permits declined to end the year, which was expected given the low levels of home builder confidence in December.

Existing home sales, December (Friday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales monthly change: –3.4%/–7.9%
• Actual existing home sales monthly change: –1.5%

Existing home sales fell less than expected in December; however, the annualized pace of sales fell to its lowest level since 2010 to end the year.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of January 23

Fourth-quarter GDP growth, advance estimate (Thursday)

Economists expect to see continued signs of economic growth when the fourth-quarter GDP report is released. Personal consumption growth is set to rise during the quarter, supporting overall economic growth.

Durable goods orders, December, preliminary estimate (Thursday)

Durable goods orders are set to rise in December, driven, in part, by an increase in volatile transportation orders.

Personal income and personal spending, December (Friday)

The December personal income and spending reports are expected to come in mixed; economists are projecting a modest increase for incomes during the month, while spending is set to drop.