Economic Release Snapshot: Personal Income and Spending Rise in January

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of February 20

Existing home sales, January (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales monthly change: +2.0%/–2.2%
• Actual existing home sales monthly change: –0.7%

The pace of existing home sales slowed for the twelfth consecutive month in January as high prices, a low supply of homes for sale, and high mortgage rates served as headwinds for the housing industry.

FOMC meeting minutes, February (Wednesday)

The FOMC meeting minutes were released on Wednesday and showed that the majority of Fed officials favored a 25 bp rate hike at the February meeting. That said, there were a few officials that advocated for a 50 bp rate hike, which could indicate that larger rate hikes are possible later this year.

Personal income and personal spending, January (Friday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +1.0%/+0.3%
• Actual personal income change: +0.6%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +1.4%/–0.1%
• Actual personal spending change: +1.8%

Both personal spending and income grew in January. The rebound in personal spending growth, after two months of declines, highlighted the resiliency of the American consumer and marked the largest monthly increase in spending since early 2021.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of February 27

Durable goods orders, preliminary estimate, January (Monday)

Headline durable goods orders are set to fall in January following a transportation-driven surge in orders in December. Core orders are set to increase modestly to start the year.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, February (Tuesday)

Consumer confidence is expected to increase in February following a modest decline in January.

ISM Manufacturing, February (Wednesday)

Manufacturer confidence is expected to improve in February; however, the index is set to remain in contractionary territory during the month.

ISM Services, February (Friday)

Service sector confidence is set to decline modestly in February following a better-than-expected increase in January. Despite the anticipated drop, the index is expected to remain in healthy expansionary territory during the month.