Economic Release Snapshot: Personal Income and Spending Grow in January

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of February 26

Durable goods orders, January, preliminary (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: –5.0%/–0.3%
• Actual durable goods orders change: –6.1%
• Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: +0.2%/–0.1%
• Actual core durable goods orders change: –0.3%

Headline durable goods orders came in below expectations in January, partly due to a slowdown in volatile transportation orders. Core durable goods orders also declined to start the year, signaling slowing business investment.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, February (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month consumer confidence: 115.0/110.9
• Actual consumer confidence: 106.7

Consumer confidence fell notably in February after rising more than expected in January. The pullback was primarily caused by souring consumer views on current economic conditions.

Personal spending and personal income, January (Thursday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.4%/+0.3%
• Actual personal income change: +1.0%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.2%/+0.7%
• Actual personal spending change: +0.2%

Personal income and spending continued to rise in January, marking ten consecutive months of personal spending growth.

ISM Manufacturing, February (Friday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 49.5/49.1
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 47.8

Manufacturer confidence fell more than expected in February, primarily caused by slowing employment and new order growth.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of March 4

ISM Services, February (Tuesday)
Service sector confidence is set to fall modestly in February after rising to a four-month high in January.

Trade balance, January (Thursday)
The international trade deficit is expected to increase modestly in January, partly due to a widening gap in the trade of goods.

Employment report, February (Friday)
Hiring growth is set to slow in February after increasing more than expected in January. Despite the anticipated slowdown, economists expect to see a solid 190,000 jobs added during the month.