Economic Release Snapshot: Personal Income and Spending Grow in August

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of September 25

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, September (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month consumer confidence: 105.5/108.7
• Actual consumer confidence: 103.0

Consumer confidence surprisingly fell more than expected in September, bringing the index to a four-month low. Future expectations worsened notably during the month as rising recession fears weighed on consumers.

Durable goods orders, August, preliminary (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: –0.5%/–5.6%
• Actual durable goods orders change: +0.2%
• Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: +0.2%/+0.1%
• Actual core durable goods orders change: +0.4%

Headline and core durable goods orders improved more than expected in August, signaling healthy levels of business investment during the month.

Personal spending and personal income, August (Friday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.4%/+0.2%
• Actual personal income change: +0.4%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.5%/+0.9%
• Actual personal spending change: +0.4%

Personal income and spending both grew in August, signaling that consumer spending remained resilient despite worsening sentiment.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of October 2

ISM Manufacturing, September (Monday)

Manufacturer confidence is expected to improve modestly in September, but the index is still expected to remain in contractionary territory during the month.

ISM Services, September (Wednesday)

Service sector confidence is expected to decline slightly in September after the index unexpectedly surged to a six-month high in August.

Trade balance, August (Thursday)

The trade deficit is set to widen modestly in August. If estimates hold, this will mark two consecutive months of a slightly wider trade gap, but the size of the trade deficit is expected to remain below the record levels we saw in 2022.

Employment report, September (Friday)

Economists expect to see healthy hiring levels during the month, with forecasts calling for 165,000 additional jobs in September following the 187,000 jobs that were added in August.