Economic Release Snapshot: Mixed December Inflation Reports

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of January 8

Trade balance, November (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior trade balance: –$64.9 billion/–$64.5 billion
• Actual trade balance: –$63.2 billion

The trade deficit unexpectedly shrank in November due to a rise in service exports and a decline in general imports.

Consumer Price Index, December (Thursday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.3%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.1%/+4.0%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.2%/+3.8%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.4%/+3.9%

Consumer inflation increased modestly in December, with headline prices rising on a monthly and year-over-year basis. While headline prices rose, core consumer inflation, which strips out the impact of volatile food and energy prices, fell to a two-year low on a year-over-year basis in December.

Producer Price Index, December (Friday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.1%/+0.0%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.1%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.1%/+0.0%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +0.8%/+2.0%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.3%/+2.0%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.0%/+1.8%

Producer prices fell in December, with the 0.1 percent drop in prices coming in below economist estimates for a 0.1 percent increase. Headline and core producer inflation came in below economist estimates and the Fed’s 2 percent target to end the year.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of January 16

Retail sales, December (Wednesday)
Retail sales are set to rise for the second consecutive month in December. If estimates hold, this would be a good sign for personal consumption and overall economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Industrial production, December (Wednesday)
Industrial production is expected to fall modestly in December, partly due to an anticipated slowdown in manufacturing production.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, January (Wednesday)
Home builder confidence is set to improve modestly in January yet remain in contractionary territory.

Housing starts and building permits, December (Thursday)
Housing starts and building permits are expected to pull back in December following an unexpected surge in housing starts in November.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, January, preliminary (Friday)
The first look at consumer sentiment in January is expected to show slightly lower confidence levels to start the year.

Existing home sales, December (Friday)
Existing home sales are set to increase modestly in December. If estimates hold, this will mark two consecutive months of rising sales.