Economic Release Snapshot: Job Growth Slows as Unemployment Rises

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of July 29

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, July (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month consumer confidence: 99.7/97.8
• Actual consumer confidence: 100.3

Consumer confidence improved more than expected in July due to improving consumer expectations for future economic conditions.

FOMC rate decision, July (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior federal funds rate upper limit: 5.50%/5.50%
• Actual federal funds rate upper limit: 5.50%

The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at the conclusion of its July meeting, which investors and economists expected. In his post-meeting press conference, Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank may consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September, depending on economic conditions.

ISM Manufacturing, July (Monday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 48.8/48.5
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 46.8

Manufacturer confidence fell more than expected in July, partly due to a notable drop in manufacturer hiring during the month. The index now sits at its lowest level since November 2023, signaling headwinds for the manufacturing industry.

Employment report, July (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +175,000/+179,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +114,000

Hiring continued to slow in July as 114,000 jobs were added against calls for 175,000 jobs. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3 percent during the month, which was its highest level in more than two years.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of August 5

ISM Services, July (Monday)
Service sector confidence is set to rebound back into expansionary territory in July after falling more than expected in June.

International trade balance, June (Tuesday)
The trade deficit is expected to shrink in June for the first time in three months.