Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Slows in June

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of July 10

Consumer Price Index, June (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.4%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.3%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +4.0%/+5.3%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.1%/+5.0%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.0%/+4.8%

Consumer inflation slowed on a year-over-year basis in June, with the annual 3.0 percent increase coming in below economic estimates. This marked the lowest level of annual consumer inflation in more than two years.

Producer Price Index, June (Thursday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.4%/+0.1%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.1%/+0.1%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +0.9%/+2.6%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +0.4%/+2.6%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +0.1%/+2.4%

Producer inflation slowed on a year-over-year basis in June. Headline producer price growth fell to 0.1 percent, while core price growth also slowed.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, July, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 60/59.2
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 72.6

Consumer sentiment improved more than expected in July as the index hit its highest level since September 2021.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of July 17

Retail sales, June (Tuesday)

Retail sales growth is expected to accelerate in June, which would mark three consecutive months of spending growth.

Industrial production, June (Tuesday)

Industrial production is set to remain unchanged in June after falling modestly in May. Manufacturing production is expected to grow during the month.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, July (Tuesday)

Home builder confidence is set to improve in July, with the index expected to hit a one-year high during the month.

Housing starts and building permits, June (Wednesday)

Both housing starts and building permits are set to fall in June following a larger-than-expected increase in both measures of new home construction in May.

Existing home sales, June (Thursday)

Existing home sales are expected to fall in June, which would mark four consecutive months of declining sales.