Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Remains High in September

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of October 10

Producer Price Index, September (Tuesday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth:
  ‒0.2%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.4%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +8.7%/+7.2%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +8.4%/+7.3%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +8.5%/+7.2%

Producer prices rose more than expected during the month, with both core and headline prices seeing higher increases in September than previously forecasted.

Consumer Price Index, July (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.6%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.4%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.6%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +8.3%/+6.3%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +8.1%/+6.5%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +8.2%/+6.6%

Consumer inflation also came in above expectations in September. The continued high levels of producer and consumer inflation support the Fed’s plans for more rate hikes at its November and December meetings.

Retail sales, August (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +0.2%/+0.4%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.0%
• Expected/prior month core retail sales monthly change: ‒0.1%/‒0.1%
• Actual core retail sales monthly change: +0.1%

Headline retail sales were unchanged during the month following an upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in August as sales of discretionary items slowed. Core retail sales increased modestly during the month.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary October

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 58.8/58.6
• Actual sentiment: 59.8

Consumer sentiment improved more than expected during the month, as consumer views on current economic conditions supported the increase in the index. Future expectations, on the other hand, soured—this was driven by rising expectations for short- and long-term inflation.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of October 17

Industrial production, September (Tuesday)

Industrial production is set to rise modestly in September as manufacturing production is expected to increase.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, October (Tuesday)

Home builder confidence is expected to drop in October, driven by a slowdown in home buyer demand.

Housing starts and building permits, September (Wednesday)

Permits are set to rise modestly during the month, while starts are expected to drop in September.

Existing home sales, September (Thursday)

Existing home sales are expected to decline in September, which would mark eight consecutive months of slowing home sales.