Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Moderates in October

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of November 13

Consumer Price Index, October (Tuesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.0%/+0.2%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.7%/+4.1%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.3%/+4.1%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.2%/+4.0%

Headline and core consumer prices increased less than expected in October. This now marks the lowest level of year-over-year core consumer price growth since September 2021.

Retail sales, October (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: –0.3%/+0.9%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: –0.1%

Retail sales fell modestly in October due, in part, to falling gas prices. Core retail sales, which strip out volatile auto and gas sales, increased 0.1 percent and signaled continued consumer spending growth.

Producer Price Index, October (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.4%/+0.2%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.1%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.5%/+0.0%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.2%/+2.7%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.9%/+2.7%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.3%/+2.4%

Headline and core producer prices came in below economist estimates in October. Falling energy prices contributed to the large decline in headline producer prices during the month, which was the largest single-month drop since April 2020.

Industrial production, October (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month production change: –0.4%/+0.1%
• Actual production change: –0.6%

Industrial production fell more than expected in October. The larger-than-expected drop in headline production was primarily due to a 10 percent drop in auto production, which was caused by the UAW strikes that have since been resolved.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, November (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 40/40
• Actual sentiment: 34

Home builder sentiment fell to its lowest level this year, as high mortgage rates negatively impacted prospective home buyer demand. The report showed that home builder expectations for future sales fell for the fifth consecutive month.

Housing starts and building permits, October (Friday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: –0.6%/+3.1%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: +1.9%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: –1.4%/–4.5%
• Actual building permits monthly change: +1.1%

Housing starts and building permits increased more than expected in October. Despite the rise during the month, the pace of new home construction remains well below the highs we saw in early 2022.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of November 20

Existing home sales, October (Tuesday)

Sales of existing homes are set to fall for the fifth consecutive month in October due to a combination of high mortgage rates, a low supply of homes for sale, and high prices.

FOMC meeting minutes, November (Tuesday)

The minutes from the Fed’s November meeting will be widely monitored for any hints on the future path of interest rate policy.

Durable goods orders, October, preliminary (Wednesday)

Headline durable goods orders are set to slow in October, while core orders are expected to increase modestly.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, November, preliminary (Wednesday)

The first estimate for consumer sentiment in November is set to show slightly higher consumer confidence during the month. If estimates hold, this would break a 4-month streak of falling confidence.