Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Moderates in November

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of December 11

Consumer Price Index, November (Tuesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.0%/+0.2%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.0%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.2%/+4.0%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.1%/+4.0%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.1%/+4.0%

Consumer inflation increased modestly in November. On a year-over-year basis, inflation fell from 3.2 percent in October to 3.1 percent in November. Service costs remained relatively high during the month and drove the majority of the year-over-year increase in consumer prices.

Producer Price Index, November (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.4%/+0.0%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.0%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.0%/+0.0%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.2%/+2.3%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.0%/+2.2%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +0.9%/+2.0%

Producer prices were unchanged in November, following a 0.4 percent decline in October. On a year-over-year basis, producer inflation fell to 0.9 percent in November, partly due to falling energy prices.

FOMC rate decision, December

• Expected/prior federal funds rate upper bound: 5.50%/5.50%
• Actual federal funds rate upper bound: 5.50%

The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged after its December meeting, as expected. Fed chair Jerome Powell’s comments in the post-meeting press conference indicated that the central bank may consider the prospect of rate cuts at some point in 2024, provided we see continued progress in the battle against inflation.

Retail sales, November (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: –0.1%/–0.2%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.3%

Retail sales unexpectedly rose in November, marking a solid start to the holiday shopping season. The spending growth was widespread, as 8 of the 13 categories showed sales growth during the month.

Industrial production, November (Friday)

• Expected/prior month production change: +0.3%/–0.9%
• Actual production change: +0.2%

Industrial production rose in November, partially reflecting a return to work for striking auto workers. Manufacturing production also rose during the month.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of December 18

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, December (Monday)

Home builder confidence is expected to increase modestly yet remain in contractionary territory in December.

Building permits and housing starts, November (Tuesday)

Building permits and housing starts are set to slow in November, reflecting low levels of home builder confidence.

Existing home sales, November (Wednesday)

Sales of existing homes are set to fall for the sixth consecutive month in November due to a lack of homes for sale, high prices, and still-high mortgage rates.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, December (Wednesday)

Consumer confidence is expected to increase modestly in December, but the index is still slated to remain below the recent highs from earlier in the year.

Personal income and personal spending, November (Friday)

Personal income and spending are expected to show signs of improvement in November. If estimates hold, this would mark eight consecutive months of spending growth.