Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Expectations Fall

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of January 9

Consumer Price Index, December (Thursday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.2%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: –0.1%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: –0.1%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +7.1%/+6.0%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +6.5%/+5.7%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +6.5%/+5.7%

Headline consumer prices fell by 0.1 percent in December, and year-over-year consumer inflation moderated as well. This report indicated that tight monetary policy is working to help combat inflation; however, there is still work to be done to get price growth back to the Fed’s target range.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary January (Friday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 60.7/59.7
• Actual sentiment: 64.6

Consumer sentiment improved more than expected to start January, supported by falling short-term inflation expectations that came in below estimates. The report showed that one-year consumer inflation expectations fell from 4.4 percent in December to 4 percent in January against calls for a more modest drop to 4.3 percent.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of January 17

Retail sales, December (Wednesday)

Retail sales are set to fall in December, which would mark two consecutive months of declining sales.

Producer Price Index, December (Wednesday)

Headline producer prices are set to fall modestly during the month, which would be in line with the decline in headline consumer prices we saw in December.

Industrial production, December (Wednesday)

Economists expect to see declining industrial production to end the year, driven, in part, by a slowdown in manufacturing output.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, December (Wednesday)

Home builder confidence is expected to remain unchanged in January after experiencing notable declines throughout 2022.

Housing starts and building permits, December (Thursday)

Building permits are set to increase modestly during the month, while starts are expected to fall for the fourth consecutive month.

Existing home sales, December (Friday)

Existing home sales are expected to fall, which would mark 11 straight months of declining sales due to high mortgage rates and housing prices.