Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Cools in May

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of June 10

Consumer Price Index, May (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.3%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.0%/+0.2%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.4%/+3.6%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.4%/+3.5%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.3%/+3.4%

Consumer inflation slowed on a monthly and year-over-year basis in May. Headline and core consumer inflation came in below economist estimates during the month, which was a welcome sign for markets and the Fed.

FOMC rate decision, June (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior federal funds rate upper limit: 5.50%/5.50%
• Actual federal funds rate upper limit: 5.50%

The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at the conclusion of its June meeting, which was widely expected by investors and economists. Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed expects to remain data-dependent when setting monetary policy in the months ahead.

Producer Price Index, May (Thursday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.5%/+0.5%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.1%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.2%/+0.0%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.3%/+2.5%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.5%/+2.5%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.2%/+2.3%

Producer prices fell 0.2 percent in May, marking the largest monthly decline in producer prices since October 2023. Year-over-year producer inflation also came in below economist estimates during the month.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, June, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 72.0/69.1
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 65.6

Consumer sentiment fell more than expected in June due to declining consumer views on both current and expected economic conditions.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of June 17

Retail sales, May (Tuesday)
Retail sales are expected to rise modestly in May after remaining unchanged in April.

Industrial production, May (Tuesday)
Industrial production is set to improve in May, partly due to rising capacity utilization during the month.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, June (Wednesday)
Home builder confidence is expected to remain unchanged in June, which would leave the index in contractionary territory for the second consecutive month.

Housing starts and building permits, May (Thursday)
Housing starts and building permits are expected to show a modest increase in May.

Existing home sales, May (Friday)
Existing home sales are set to fall for the third consecutive month in May.