Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Cools in July

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of August 8

Consumer Price Index (July) 

• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.5%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.0%/+0.3%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +8.7%/+6.1%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +8.5%/+5.9%

Consumer prices increased by less than expected in July, driven, in large part, by falling energy prices.

Producer Price Index (July) 

• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.4%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: ‒0.5%/+0.2%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +10.4%/+7.7%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +9.8%/+7.6%

Producer prices also experienced lowered levels of inflationary pressure in July, with headline producer prices dropping for the first time in more than two years.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (preliminary August)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 52.5/51.5
• Actual sentiment: 55.1

Consumer sentiment improved by more than expected to start August, driven by optimistic future expectations for the economy.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of August 15

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index (Monday) 

Home builder confidence is expected to remain unchanged in August after falling notably in July.

Housing starts and building permits (Tuesday)

These measures of new home construction are expected to show modest declines during the month.

Industrial production (Tuesday)

Industrial production is set to improve during the month following a small decline in June.

Retail sales (Wednesday)

Retail sales are expected to show modest growth in July after surging in June.

FOMC Fed meeting minutes (Wednesday)

The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting will be widely analyzed, with economists and investors looking to the minutes for hints on the Fed’s plan for the path of monetary policy.

Existing home sales (Thursday)

Existing home sales are expected to decline in July, as high prices and mortgage rates are projected to serve as headwinds for sales growth.