Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Cools in July

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of August 12

Producer Price Index, July (Tuesday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.1%/+0.0%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.7%/+3.0%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.3%/+2.6%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.2%/+2.4%

Producer inflation came in below economist estimates on a headline and core basis in July. This result was a welcome development after producer prices increased more than expected in June.

Consumer Price Index, July (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: –0.1%/+0.1%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.0%/+3.3%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.0%/+3.2%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.9%/+3.2%

Consumer inflation slowed on a year-over-year basis in July, with the 2.9 percent annual rise in prices during the month representing the lowest level of consumer inflation in more than three years.

Retail sales, July (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +0.4%/–0.2%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +1.0%

Retail sales came in well above analyst estimates in July, with headline sales surging 1 percent against calls for a more modest 0.4 percent increase. Core sales also beat expectations in July.

Industrial production, July (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month production change: –0.3%/+0.3%
• Actual production change: –0.6%

Industrial production fell more than expected in July, partly due to a slowdown in manufacturing production during the month.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, August (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 43/41
• Actual sentiment: 39

Home builder sentiment fell for the fourth consecutive month in August due to a combination of still-high mortgage rates and rising prices.

Housing starts and building permits, July (Friday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: –1.5%/+1.1%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: –6.8%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: –2.0%/+3.9%
• Actual building permits monthly change: –4.0%

Housing starts and building permits fell more than expected in July. These declines brought the pace of new home construction to its lowest level since 2020.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, August, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 66.9/66.4
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 67.84

Consumer sentiment rose more than expected in August, as improving consumer expectations caused the index to rise for the first time in five months.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of August 19

FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday)
While the Fed voted to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its July meeting, the release of the meeting minutes will still be widely analyzed for hints on the Fed’s future path of interest rate policy.

Existing home sales, July (Thursday)
Existing home sales are set to increase modestly in July after falling for four consecutive months.