Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Cools in August

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of September 9

Consumer Price Index, August (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.9%/+3.2%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.5%/+3.2%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.5%/+3.2%

Consumer inflation fell to a three-year low in August as year-over-year headline inflation dropped to 2.5 percent. Falling energy and core goods prices helped drive the improvement during the month.

Producer Price Index, August (Thursday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.0%/‒0.2%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.1%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.1%/+2.3%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.7%/+2.4%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.7%/+2.4%

Producer inflation also showed signs of improvement in August, with headline producer price growth falling to 1.7 percent on a year-over-year basis.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, September, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 68.5/67.9
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 69.0

Consumer sentiment rose slightly more than expected in September. Consumer views on current economic conditions and future expectations improved at the start of the month.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of September 16

Retail sales, August (Tuesday)
Retail sales are set to fall 0.2 percent in August after coming in above economist estimates in July with a 1 percent increase.

Industrial production, August (Tuesday)
Industrial production is expected to come in modestly higher in August after a weather-related decline in July.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, September (Tuesday)
Home builder confidence is set to improve in September after falling for four consecutive months. High prices and tepid home buyer demand have served as headwinds for home builders throughout the year.

Housing starts and building permits, August (Wednesday)
These two measures of new home construction are set to rise in August after falling more than expected in July. Despite the anticipated increase during the month, the pace of new home constructions is set to remain subdued compared to the start of the year.

FOMC rate decision, September (Wednesday)
The Fed is widely expected to embark on a rate-cutting cycle by lowering the federal funds rate at the conclusion of its September meeting. Investors and economists will be keeping a close eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference for any hints on the future path of monetary policy.

Existing home sales, August (Thursday)
The pace of existing home sales is set to fall in August after a modest increase in July. If estimates hold, the decline in August would wipe out the improvement we saw in July.