Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Comes in Hot in January

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of February 12

Consumer Price Index, January (Tuesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.3%/+0.4%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.4%/+3.9%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.9%/+3.7%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.1%/+3.9%

Headline and core consumer prices rose more than expected on a year-over-year basis in January, driven by stubbornly high service price growth to start the year.

Retail sales, January (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: –0.2%/+0.4%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: –0.8%

Retail sales fell more than expected to start the year. The declines were widespread, as nine of the 13 measured categories saw lower sales in January compared to December.

Industrial production, January (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month production change: +0.2%/0.0%
• Actual production change: –0.1%

Industrial production surprisingly declined in January, which was partly driven by a slowdown in manufacturing production.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, February (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 46/44
• Actual sentiment: 48

Home builder sentiment improved more than expected in February, as the index rose from 44 in January to 48 in February against calls for a more modest increase to 46. This result brought the index to a six-month high.

Housing starts and building permits, January (Friday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: 0.0%/+3.3%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: –14.8%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: +1.3%/+1.8%
• Actual building permits monthly change: –1.5%

Housing starts and building permits fell more than expected in January. The large decline in starts brought the pace of new home construction to a five-month low to start the year.

Producer Price Index, January (Friday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.1%/–0.1%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.1%/+0.1%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.3%/+0.5%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.0%/+1.7%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +0.6%/+1.6%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +0.9%/+2.0%

Producer prices increased more than expected in January due to rising service costs. Headline and core producer prices came in above economist estimates on a monthly and year-over-year basis to start the year.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, February, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 80.0/79.0
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 79.6

Consumer sentiment rose for the third consecutive month in February. Rising expectations for future economic conditions drove the index’s modest increase.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of February 20

FOMC meeting minutes, January (Wednesday)
The Fed’s January meeting minutes are set to be released on Wednesday. While there were no changes to interest rates at this meeting, the minutes will be closely monitored by economists and investors looking for hints on the future path of monetary policy.

Existing home sales, January (Thursday)
Sales of existing homes are set to rise in January following a larger-than-expected decline in December. The pace of existing home sales growth fell notably throughout 2022 and 2023 due to high prices, high mortgage rates, and a lack of supply of homes for sale.