Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Accelerates in August

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of September 11

Consumer Price Index, August (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.6%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.6%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.2%/+4.7%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.6%/+4.3%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.7%/+4.3%

Headline consumer inflation increased 0.6 percent in August and 3.7 percent on a year-over-year basis. Core consumer inflation, which strips out the impact of volatile food and energy prices, continued to moderate on a year-over-year basis in August.

Retail sales, August (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +0.1%/+0.5%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.6%

Retail sales increased more than expected in August, marking five consecutive months of sales growth. Consumer spending has remained impressively resilient throughout the year, supporting overall economic growth.

Producer Price Index, August (Thursday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.4%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.7%/+0.2%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +0.8%/+2.4%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.3%/+2.2%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.6%/+2.2%

Headline producer inflation increased more than expected in August, but core producer price growth continued to moderate on a year-over-year basis.

Industrial production, August (Friday)

• Expected/prior month production change: +0.1%/+0.7%
• Actual production change: +0.4%

Industrial production increased more than expected in August, supported by increased capacity utilization and a modest rise in manufacturing production.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, September, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 69.0/69.5
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 67.7

Consumer sentiment fell modestly in September due to souring consumer sentiment surrounding current economic conditions. Consumers’ short- and long-term inflation expectations also fell, which helped bring future expectations up in September.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of September 18

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, September (Monday)

Home builder confidence is expected to remain unchanged in September after falling more than anticipated in August. Despite the drop in August and expectations for no change in September, home builder sentiment has improved notably throughout the year.

Housing starts and building permits, August (Tuesday)

These two measures of new home construction are set to come in mixed in August, with housing starts expected to fall while building permits are set to rise modestly.

FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

Wednesday will see the release of the FOMC rate decision from the Fed’s September meeting. Economists and investors do not anticipate any rate hikes at this meeting.

Existing home sales, August (Thursday)

Sales of existing homes are set to rise modestly in August, which would break a two-month streak of declining sales if estimates hold.