Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Accelerated in June

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of July 11

June Consumer Price Index report (Wednesday)

• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +1.1%/+0.5%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +1.3%/+0.7%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +8.8%/+5.7%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +9.1%/+5.9%

Consumer prices increased by more than expected in June on both a headline and core basis. This brought headline consumer inflation to its highest level in 40 years.

June Producer Price Index report (Thursday)

• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.8%/+0.5%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +1.1%/+0.4%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +10.7%/+8.2%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +11.3%/+8.2%

Headline producer prices increased by more than expected in June. Given the high levels of inflationary pressure for both consumers and producers in June, the Fed is expected to remain committed to tightening monetary policy at its July meeting.

June retail sales report (Friday)

• Expected headline sales/core sales: +0.9%/+0.1%
• Actual headline sales/core sales: +1%/+0.7%

Consumer spending drives the majority of economic activity in the country, so the rebound in spending in June was a positive sign for overall growth to finish out the second quarter. 

June industrial production report (Friday)

• Expected industrial production: +0.1%
• Actual industrial production: ‒0.2%

Industrial production declined in June, driven by a slowdown in manufacturing output during the month. This marks the first month this year with declining industrial production, so the modest drop in June is not a major concern at this time.

Preliminary July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (Friday)

• Expected sentiment: 50.0
• Actual sentiment: 51.1

Consumer sentiment improved by more than expected in July, due to declining consumer inflation expectations. 

Upcoming Reports for the Week of July 18 

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index (Monday)

This measure of home builder sentiment is expected to decline modestly but remain in expansionary territory in July. 

June housing starts and building permits (Tuesday)

Starts and permits are expected to come in mixed during the month, with permits set to decline while starts rebound following a drop in May. 

June existing home sales (Wednesday)

Sales of existing homes are expected to decline modestly, which would mark five consecutive months of slowing sales.