Economic Release Snapshot: Housing Slows as Fed Hikes Rates

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of September 19

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, September (Monday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 47/49
• Actual sentiment: 46

Home builder sentiment dropped more than expected in September, marking nine consecutive months of declining home builder sentiment.

Housing starts and building permits, August (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: +0.3%/‒10.9%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: +12.2%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: ‒4.8%/‒0.6%
• Actual building permits monthly change: ‒10.0%

New home construction data was mixed in August, as starts increased more than expected while permits declined more than forecasted.

Existing home sales, August (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales monthly change: ‒2.3%/‒5.7%
• Actual existing home sales monthly change: ‒0.4%

Existing home sales fell less than expected in August; however, this decline brought the pace of existing home sales to its lowest level since May 2020.

FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior meeting rate change: +0.75%/+0.75%
• Actual rate change: +0.75%

The Fed hiked the federal funds rate by 75 bps at its September meeting, which was in line with economist and investor expectations. Looking forward, markets expect further rate hikes at the Fed’s meetings in November and December.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of September 26

Durable goods orders, August preliminary (Tuesday)

The preliminary estimate for durable goods orders in August is expected to show a modest slowdown in business spending.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, September (Tuesday)

Consumer confidence is expected to increase modestly in September after improving more than expected in August.

Personal spending and personal income, August (Friday)

Both spending and income are expected to increase in August, following modest improvements in July.