Economic Release Snapshot: Housing Sector Cools in September

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of October 17

Industrial production, September (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior industrial production change: +0.1%/–0.1%
• Actual industrial production change: +0.4%

Industrial production increased more than expected in September. This was driven, in part, by a larger-than-expected rise in manufacturing production.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, October (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 43/46
• Actual sentiment: 38

Home builder sentiment dropped more than expected in October, marking 10 consecutive months of declining home builder confidence.

Housing starts and building permits, September (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: –7.2%/+13.7%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: –8.1%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: –0.8%/–8.5%
• Actual building permits monthly change: +1.4%

These volatile measures of new home construction came in mixed in September, as starts fell more than anticipated while permits unexpectedly rose.

Existing home sales, September (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales monthly change: –2.1%/–0.8%
• Actual existing home sales monthly change: –1.5%

Existing home sales fell less than expected in September; however, this now marks nine consecutive months of declining home sales, as rising prices and mortgage rates continue to cool the housing sector.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of October 24

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, October (Tuesday)

Consumer confidence is set to decline modestly in October following improvements in August and September.

Third-quarter GDP growth, advanced report (Thursday)

GDP is set to increase 2.3 percent annualized in the third quarter, which would be a welcome rebound following two quarters of declines.

Durable goods orders, September preliminary (Thursday)

The preliminary estimate for durable goods orders in September is expected to show a rebound in business spending following a modest decline in August.

Personal spending and personal income, September (Friday)

Both income and spending are expected to increase in September.