Economic Release Snapshot: Housing Sector Continues to Slow

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of August 15

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index (Monday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 54/55
• Actual sentiment: 49

Home builder sentiment dropped by more than expected in August, bringing the index to its lowest level since initial lockdowns in spring 2020.

Housing starts and building permits (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: ‒2.1%/+2.4%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: ‒9.6%
• Expected/prior building permits monthly change: ‒3.3%/+0.1%
• Actual building permits monthly change: ‒1.3%

Both starts and permits declined in July, signaling a continued slowdown in new home construction.

Industrial production (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month industrial production monthly change: +0.3%/0%
• Actual industrial production monthly change: +0.6%

Industrial production increased by more than expected during the month, supported by a rise in manufacturing output in July.

Retail sales (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +0.1%/+0.8%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: 0%
• Expected/prior month core retail sales monthly change: +0.4%/+0.7%
• Actual core retail sales monthly change: +0.7%

Headline retail sales were unchanged during the month; however, this was primarily due to lower energy spending because of the falling gas prices. Core retail sales, which strip out the impact of auto and gas sales, increased by more than expected.

FOMC Fed meeting minutes (Wednesday)

The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting showed that central bankers remained undecided on whether to hike the federal funds rate by 50 bps or 75 bps at its next meeting in September.

Existing home sales (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales monthly change: ‒5.1%/‒5.5%
• Actual existing home sales monthly change: ‒5.9%

The pace of existing home sales fell by more than expected in July, driven by rising prices and still-high mortgage rates.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of August 22

Durable goods orders (Wednesday) 

The preliminary estimate for July’s durable goods orders is expected to show continued business spending during the month.

Personal spending and personal income (Friday)

Both spending and income are expected to increase in July, which would be a positive sign that consumers remain willing to go out and spend.