Economic Release Snapshot: Housing Sales Slump in August

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of September 18

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, September (Monday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 49/50
• Actual sentiment: 45

Home builder sentiment dropped more than expected in September, with the index falling into contractionary territory. Rising mortgage rates weighed on prospective home buyers and builders during the month.

Housing starts and building permits, August (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: –0.9%/+2.0%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: –11.3%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: –0.2%/+0.1%
• Actual building permits monthly change: +6.9%

Housing starts and building permits were mixed in August, as starts fell more than expected and permits unexpectedly rose. Despite the rise in permits, the pace of new home construction remained below the highs we saw in early 2022.

FOMC rate decision, September (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior federal funds rate upper limit: 5.5%/5.5%
• Actual federal funds rate upper limit: 5.5%

The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at its September meeting, which was in line with economist and investor expectations. Looking forward, the Fed is expected to remain dependent on data when setting monetary policy at future meetings.

Existing home sales, August (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales monthly change: +0.7%/–2.2%
• Actual existing home sales monthly change: –0.7%

Existing home sales fell more than expected in August, bringing the pace of sales to its lowest level in seven months. Rising mortgage rates and a low supply of existing homes for sale served as headwinds for prospective home buyers.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of September 25

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, September (Tuesday)

Consumer confidence is set to fall modestly in September, echoing the declines in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey during the month.

Durable goods orders, August, preliminary (Wednesday)

Headline durable goods orders are set to fall in August, while core orders are set to increase modestly. If estimates hold, the anticipated rise in core orders would signal continued business investment.

Personal income and personal spending, August (Friday)

Personal income and spending are expected to show signs of steady growth in August, which would mark an impressive nine consecutive months of spending growth.