Economic Release Snapshot: Housing Sales Slow in September

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of October 16

Retail sales, September (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +0.3%/+0.8%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.7%

Retail sales increased more than expected in September, with headline and core retail sales coming in above economist forecasts. This marked six consecutive months of headline sales growth, signaling continued high levels of consumer demand.

Industrial production, September (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month production change: +0.0%/+0.0%
• Actual production change: +0.3%

Industrial production increased more than expected in September, driven by increased capacity utilization and a rebound in manufacturing production.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, October (Monday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 44/44
• Actual sentiment: 40

Home builder sentiment unexpectedly fell to a nine-month low in October as rising mortgage rates and home prices continued to serve as headwinds for prospective home buyers.

Housing starts and building permits, September (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: +7.8%/–12.5%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: +7.0%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: –5.7%/+6.8%
• Actual building permits monthly change: –4.4%

Housing starts and building permits were mixed in September, as starts increased less than expected and permits fell less than forecast. Despite the rise in starts during the month, the pace of new home construction remained below the post-pandemic highs we saw in early 2022.

Existing home sales, September (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales monthly change: –3.7%/–0.7%
• Actual existing home sales monthly change: –2.0%

Existing home sales continued to decline in September, with the pace of sales dropping to its slowest level since 2010.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of October 23

Third-quarter GDP growth, advance estimate (Thursday)

The first estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter is set to show accelerated economic growth during the quarter, powered, in part, by a rise in personal consumption growth.

Durable goods orders, September, preliminary (Thursday)

Headline and core durable goods orders are set to rise in September, which could be a good sign for business investment if estimates hold.

Personal income and personal spending, September (Friday)

Personal income and spending are set to rise by 0.4 percent in September, which would match the increases we saw in August.