Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Surges in September

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of October 2

ISM Manufacturing, September (Monday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 47.9/47.6
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 49

Manufacturer confidence improved more than expected in September, bringing the index to its highest level since last November. The improvement in the index was supported by rising production growth and hiring during the month.

ISM Services, September (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 53.5/54.5
• Actual ISM Services index: 53.6

Service sector confidence fell slightly less than expected in September. Despite the decline, service sector confidence remained in expansionary territory, which should help support business investment during the month.

Trade balance, August (Thursday)

• Expected/prior trade balance: –$59.8 billion/–$64.7 billion
• Actual trade balance: –$58.3 billion

The trade deficit shrank to its smallest monthly level since 2020 in August, as exports increased 1.6 percent and imports fell 0.7 percent.

Employment report, September (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +170,000/+227,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +336,000

Hiring accelerated in September, as 336,000 jobs were added. This marked the largest monthly increase since January. Despite the strong job growth, average hourly earnings growth slowed modestly in September. 

Upcoming Reports for the Week of October 9

Producer Price Index, September (Wednesday)

Producer inflation is expected to moderate during the month, with headline and core consumer price growth set to slow on a monthly basis.

FOMC meeting minutes, September (Wednesday)

Economists and investors will closely examine the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting for hints on the future path of monetary policy.

Consumer Price Index, September (Thursday)

Consumer inflation is expected to show signs of slowing growth in September, with monthly and year-over-year consumer price growth set to decelerate during the month.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, October, preliminary (Friday)

The first estimate of consumer sentiment in October is set to show slightly lower consumer confidence, with the index set to fall to a four-month low to start the month.