Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Surges in July

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of August 1

ISM Manufacturing (July) 

• Previous/expected ISM Manufacturing: 53.0/52.0
• Actual ISM Manufacturing: 52.8

Manufacturing confidence declined by less than expected in July, and the index remained in expansionary territory during the month.

ISM Services (July) 

• Previous/expected ISM Services: 55.3/53.5
• Actual ISM Services: 56.7

Service sector confidence surprisingly increased in July, driven by high levels of consumer demand for services this summer.

Trade balance (June)

• Previous/expected monthly trade deficit: ‒$84.9 billion/‒$80.0 billion
• Actual monthly trade deficit: ‒$79.6 billion

The monthly trade deficit declined by more than expected during the month, with the result bringing the deficit to its lowest monthly level this year.

Employment report (July)

• Previous/expected non-farm job growth: 398,000/250,0000
• Actual non-farm job growth: 528,000
• Previous/expected unemployment rate: 3.6%/3.6%
• Actual unemployment rate: 3.5%

The July jobs report showed that significantly more jobs than expected were added during the month, signaling high levels of labor demand. The strong job market and declining unemployment rate are expected to support the Fed’s plans for tighter monetary policy throughout the year.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of August 8 

Consumer Price Index (Wednesday) 

Consumer inflation is set to slow notably in July on both a monthly and year-over-year basis, which would be an encouraging sign that the Fed’s attempts to combat inflation are starting to show signs of progress.

Producer Price Index (Thursday)

Producer inflation is also expected to show signs of slower growth in July, driven, in part, by falling energy prices during the month.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (Friday)

Consumer sentiment is expected to improve modestly to start August, driven by declining consumer inflation expectations.