Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Surges in January

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of January 30

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, January (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior Consumer Confidence Index: 109.0/109.0
• Actual Consumer Confidence Index: 107.1

Consumer confidence declined modestly during the month; however, the index remained well above the recent low of 95.3 that it hit in July 2022. Consumer views on the present economic situation improved to start the year, but souring expectations led to the decline in the overall index.

ISM Manufacturing, January (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 48.0/48.4
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 47.4

Manufacturer confidence declined slightly more than expected in January, which brought the index further into contractionary territory.

FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

The Fed hiked the federal funds rate 25 bps at its February meeting, which was in line with investor and economist forecasts. The Fed is expected to slow the pace of rate hikes this year compared to last year.

Employment report, January (Friday)

• Expected/prior monthly job growth: 188,000/260,000
• Actual monthly job growth: 517,000
• Expected/prior unemployment rate: 3.6%/3.5%
• Actual unemployment rate: 3.4%

Hiring surged past expectations in January, as 517,000 jobs were added during the month against calls for a more modest 188,000. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly declined to a 53-year low of 3.4 percent to start the year.

ISM Services, January (Friday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 50.5/49.6
• Actual ISM Services index: 55.2

Service sector confidence rebounded notably in January following a sharp decline in December. An increased demand for services drove this rebound, as new orders and business activity improved during the month.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of February 6

International trade report, December (Tuesday)

The monthly trade deficit is expected to widen in December after tightening more than expected in November.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment, February preliminary (Friday)

Consumer sentiment is expected to increase modestly during the month, which would mark three consecutive months of improving confidence.