Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Surges in January

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of January 29

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, January (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month consumer confidence: 114.8/108.0
• Actual consumer confidence: 114.8

Consumer confidence improved for the third consecutive month in January, bringing the index to its highest level in more than two years. The improvement was due to a sharp rise in consumer views on current economic conditions to start the year.

FOMC rate decision, January (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior federal funds rate upper bound: 5.50%/5.50%
• Actual federal funds rate upper bound: 5.50%

The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at the end of its January meeting, as expected. Fed Chair Powell’s comments in the post-meeting press conference indicated that it’s unlikely the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting in March, but he left the door open to the possibility.

ISM Manufacturing, January (Thursday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 47.2/47.1
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 49.1

Manufacturer confidence improved more than expected in January, as the index rose to its highest level in more than a year. Despite the improvement, the index remained in contractionary territory.

Employment report, January (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +185,000/+333,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +353,000

Hiring continued to accelerate in January, as 353,000 new jobs were added following an upwardly revised 333,000 jobs in December. Job growth in January was notably higher than expected and signaled strong labor demand across the economy.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of February 5

ISM Services, January (Monday)
Service sector confidence is set to rise in January and remain in expansionary territory for the thirteenth consecutive month.

Trade balance, December (Wednesday)
The international trade deficit is set to fall modestly in December. If estimates hold, this will mark two consecutive months of a shrinking deficit.