Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Slows in June

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of July 3

ISM Manufacturing, June (Monday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 47.1/46.9
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 46

Manufacturer confidence fell more than expected in June. This result left the manufacturing sector in contractionary territory for the eighth consecutive month.

FOMC meeting minutes, June (Wednesday)

The minutes from the Fed’s last meeting in June were released on Wednesday. The minutes showed a divided Fed at the June meeting, with some central bankers calling for a hike in June, while others advocated for the pause in hikes we saw during the month.

International trade report, May (Thursday)

• Expected/prior trade deficit: –$69 billion/–$74.4 billion
• Actual trade deficit: –$69 billion

The trade deficit narrowed as expected in May due, in part, to a drop in the import of goods during the month.

ISM Services, June (Thursday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 51.2/50.3
• Actual ISM Services index: 53.9

Service sector confidence increased more than expected in June, as the index hit a four-month high. The improving sentiment was widespread, as 15 of the 18 surveyed industries reported growth in June.

Employment report, June (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +230,000/+306,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +209,000

Hiring remained solid in June, as 209,000 jobs were added during the month. While headline job growth came in slightly below economist expectations of 230,000 jobs, this still represents a strong month of hiring on a historical basis.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of July 10

Consumer Price Index, June (Wednesday)

Headline and core consumer prices are set to show slowing year-over-year inflation in June, with headline consumer inflation set to fall to 3.1 percent for the year.

Producer Price Index, June (Thursday)

Producer inflation is also expected to slow on a year-over-year basis in June, with headline producer prices set to increase 0.4 percent on a year-over-year basis.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, July, preliminary (Friday)

The first estimate of consumer sentiment in July is expected to show a moderate increase in confidence to start the second half of the year. The index is set to hit a five-month high in July, which would be a positive signal for future consumer spending growth.