Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Slows in June

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of July 1

ISM Manufacturing, June (Monday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 49.1/48.7
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 48.5

Manufacturer confidence fell for the third consecutive month in June, partly due to a slowdown in hiring during the month.

Trade balance, May (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior trade deficit: –$76.5 billion/–$74.5 billion
• Actual trade deficit: –$75.1 billion

The trade deficit widened less than expected in May, marking the largest monthly trade deficit since 2022. Exports fell 0.7 percent during the month, while imports were down 0.3 percent.

ISM Services, June (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 52.7/53.8
• Actual ISM Services index: 48.8

Service sector confidence unexpectedly fell into contractionary territory in June, as a slowdown in hiring and new orders brought the index to a four-year low.

FOMC meeting minutes, June (Wednesday)
The minutes from the recent FOMC meeting showed that the Fed remains data-dependent when setting monetary policy. Central bankers indicated that they were closely watching the labor market for signs of weakness.

Employment report, June (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +190,000/+218,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +206,000

Hiring moderated in June as 206,000 jobs were added following a downwardly revised 218,000 jobs in May. The underlying data also showed signs of cooling as the unemployment rate ticked up 4.1 percent while wage growth slowed in June.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of July 8

Consumer Price Index, June (Thursday)
Consumer inflation is set to slow in June, with economists calling for year-over-year price growth to fall from 3.3 percent in May to 3.1 percent in June.

Producer Price Index, June (Friday)
Producer prices are set to increase modestly in June after falling in May.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, July, preliminary (Friday)
Consumer sentiment is expected to fall in July, which would mark three consecutive months of declining confidence.