Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Slows in April

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of April 29

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, April (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month consumer confidence: 104.0/103.1
• Actual consumer confidence: 97.0

Consumer confidence surprisingly fell in April, as the index dropped to its lowest level since July 2022. Consumer views on current economic conditions soured during the month, partly due to high food and fuel prices.

FOMC rate decision, May (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior federal funds rate upper limit: 5.50%/5.50%
• Actual federal funds rate upper limit: 5.50%

The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at the conclusion of its May meeting, as expected. Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed will remain data-dependent when setting rates throughout the year.

ISM Manufacturing, April (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 50.0/50.3
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 49.2

Manufacturer confidence fell more than expected in April, bringing the index to a four-month low. New orders for manufactured goods contracted during the month.

Trade balance, March (Thursday)

• Expected/prior trade deficit: –$69.8billion/–$69.5 billion
• Actual trade deficit: –$69.4 billion

The trade deficit narrowed slightly in March, as imports fell 1.6 percent and exports dropped 2 percent.

Employment report, April (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +240,000/+315,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +175,000

Hiring slowed in April, with 175,000 jobs added during the month against calls for a more robust 240,000 jobs. While this result indicated solid job growth on a historical basis, it represented the smallest monthly increase since October 2023.

ISM Services, April (Friday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 52.0/51.4
• Actual ISM Services index: 49.4

Service sector confidence fell more than expected in April, as the index slipped into contractionary territory for the first time since December 2022. Service sector hiring fell sharply during the month.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of May 6

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, May, preliminary (Friday)
Consumer sentiment is set to fall modestly in May, partly due to worsening consumer expectations for future economic conditions.