Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Remains Strong in October

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of October 31

ISM Manufacturing, October (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 50.0/50.9
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 50.2

FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior federal funds rate upper limit: 4.0%/3.25%
• Actual federal funds rate upper limit: 4.0%

The Fed hiked the federal funds rate 75 bps at its November meeting, which was in line with expectations. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank will likely hike at its upcoming meeting in December and into 2023.

ISM Services, October (Thursday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 55.3/56.7
• Actual ISM Services index: 54.4

Service sector confidence fell more than expected during the month, but the index remained in expansionary territory despite the decline.

Employment report, October (Friday)

• Expected/prior monthly job growth: 193,000/315,000
• Actual monthly job growth: 261,000
• Expected/prior unemployment rate: 3.6%/3.5%
• Actual unemployment rate: 3.7%

More jobs than expected were added in October, and the September report was also revised upward. The unemployment rate increased more than expected during the month yet remained low on a historical basis.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of November 7

Consumer Price Index, October (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index report is set to show continued inflationary pressure, with headline prices set to rise 0.7 percent in October.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November preliminary (Friday)

Consumer sentiment is set to decline modestly during the month, which would break a fourth-month streak of improving confidence.