Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Remains Solid in July

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of July 31

ISM Manufacturing, July (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 46.9/46.0
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 46.4

Manufacturer confidence improved less than expected in July, leaving the index in contractionary territory for the ninth consecutive month.

ISM Services, July (Thursday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 53.1/53.9
• Actual ISM Services index: 52.7

Service sector confidence fell more than expected in July due, in part, to a slowdown in service sector hiring.

Employment report, July (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +200,000/+185,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +187,000

The July jobs report showed continued hiring growth, as 187,000 jobs were added during the month. This was up slightly from the 185,000 jobs that were added in June and helped bring the unemployment rate down to 3.5 percent.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of August 7

International trade report, June (Tuesday)

The June international trade report is set to show a smaller trade deficit during the month, driven by an anticipated small rise in exports and a decline in imports.

Consumer Price Index, July (Thursday)

Consumer inflation is set to rise 0.2 percent during the month, with year-over-year price growth expected to rise modestly from 3 percent in June to 3.3 percent in July.

Producer Price Index, July (Friday)

Producer inflation is also expected to increase 0.2 percent during the month, with year-over-year producer prices expected to increase 0.7 percent in July. If estimates hold, the July inflation reports will continue to highlight the progress we’ve seen in lowering inflationary pressure over the past year.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, August, preliminary (Friday)

The first estimate for consumer sentiment in August is expected to show a modest decline for the index. This follows a larger-than-expected increase in July that brought the index to a nearly two-year high.