Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Remained Strong in November

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of November 28

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, November (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior consumer confidence: 100.0/102.2
• Actual consumer confidence: 100.2

Consumer confidence declined slightly less than expected during the month. The result led to two months of declining confidence, driven by worsening consumer views on the present situation and souring expectations for the future.

Personal spending and personal income, October (Thursday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Actual personal income change: +0.7%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.8%/+0.6%
• Actual personal spending change: +0.8%

Both personal income and spending increased in October. This now marks three consecutive months of strong spending growth, which is a good sign for the economy given the importance of consumer spending on overall growth.

ISM Manufacturing, November (Thursday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 49.7/50.2
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 49.0

Manufacturer confidence declined slightly more than expected during the month, which brought the index to its lowest level since mid-2020.

Employment report, November (Friday)

• Expected/prior monthly job growth: 200,000/284,000
• Actual monthly job growth: 263,000
• Expected/prior unemployment rate: 3.7%/3.7%
• Actual unemployment rate: 3.7%

More jobs than expected were added in November as demand for labor remained strong. The unemployment rate was unchanged, while the labor force participation rate fell.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of December 5

ISM Services, November (Monday)
Service sector confidence is set to fall for the third consecutive month in November, which would signify that service sector businesses continue to face headwinds despite continued high levels of service demand.

International trade report, October (Tuesday)
The monthly trade deficit is expected to widen for the second consecutive month in October; however, the trade gap is set to remain short of the record levels we saw in the first quarter.

Producer Price Index, November (Friday)
The Producer Price Index report is set to show moderating producer inflation during the month, with year-over-year price growth projected to fall to its lowest level since May 2021.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December preliminary (Friday)
Consumer sentiment is expected to increase modestly in December after falling in November.