Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Accelerates in November

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of December 4

ISM Services, November (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 52.3/51.8
• Actual ISM Services index: 52.7

Service sector confidence improved more than expected in November, supported by faster-than-expected new order growth. The index has remained in expansionary territory throughout the entire year.

Trade balance, October (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior trade balance: –$64.2 billion/–$61.2 billion
• Actual trade balance: –$64.3 billion

The trade deficit widened slightly more than expected in October. Imports rose 0.2 percent, while exports fell 1 percent.

Employment report, November (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +185,000/+150,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +199,000

Hiring accelerated in November, as the 199,000 jobs that were added came in above economist expectations. The underlying data also showed signs of continued labor demand as the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 3.9 percent in October to 3.7 percent in November.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, November, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 62.0/61.3
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 69.4

Consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to a four-month high in November. Part of the improvement was due to tumbling inflation expectations, with one-year inflation expectations falling from 4.5 percent in November to 3.1 percent to start December.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of December 11

Consumer Price Index, November (Tuesday)

Consumer inflation is expected to moderate in November, with year-over-year consumer price growth set to fall from 3.2 percent in October to 3.1 percent in November.

Producer Price Index, November (Wednesday)

Producer inflation is also expected to show signs of slowing growth, with year-over-year producer inflation set to fall from 1.3 percent in October to 1.1 percent in November.

FOMC rate decision, December (Wednesday)

The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged after its December meeting. Investors and economists will be focusing on the post-meeting press release and Fed chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for hints on the future path of monetary policy.

Retail sales, November (Thursday)

Retail sales are expected to fall modestly in November, which would mark two consecutive months of declining sales if estimates prove to be accurate.

Industrial production, November (Friday)

Economist forecasts expect to see a rebound in industrial production growth in November following an automotive strike–driven decline in October.