Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Accelerates in March

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of April 8

ISM Manufacturing, March (Monday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 48.3/47.8
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 50.3

Manufacturer confidence improved more than expected in March, as the index rose into expansionary territory for the first time in more than a year.

ISM Services, March (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 52.8/52.6
• Actual ISM Services index: 51.4

Service sector confidence fell more than expected in March, partly due to a continued slowdown in service sector hiring. Service sector price growth also slowed during the month, which was a good sign for inflation.

Trade balance, February (Thursday)

• Expected/prior trade deficit: –$67.6 billion/–$67.6 billion
• Actual trade deficit: –$68.9 billion

The trade deficit widened more than expected in February as import growth outpaced export growth. The trade deficit now sits near a one-year high but remains well below the record levels we saw in early 2022.

Employment report, March (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +214,000/+270,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +303,000

Hiring continued to accelerate in March, as an impressive 303,000 jobs were added during the month. The unemployment rate fell from 3.9 percent in February to 3.8 percent in March.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of April 15

Consumer Price Index, March (Wednesday)
Headline consumer inflation is expected to accelerate on a year-over-year basis in March, while core consumer inflation is expected to slow modestly.

FOMC meeting minutes, March (Wednesday)
While the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, the meeting minutes will be widely analyzed by economists and investors for potential guidance on the future path of monetary policy.

Producer Price Index, March (Thursday)
Producer inflation is set to slow in March after rising more than expected in February.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, April, preliminary (Friday)
Consumer sentiment is set to fall modestly in April after rising to a two-year high in March.