Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Accelerates in December

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of January 2

ISM Manufacturing, December (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 47.1/46.7
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 47.4

Manufacturer confidence improved more than expected to end the year. Despite the improvement, the index remained in contractionary territory for the month.

FOMC meeting minutes, December (Wednesday)

The minutes from the December FOMC meeting didn’t contain any major surprises. Fed members discussed the economy’s slowing growth rate in the fourth quarter as well as the prospects for potential rate cuts in 2024.

Employment report, December (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +175,000/+173,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +216,000

Hiring continued to accelerate in December, as 216,000 jobs were added following a downwardly revised 173,000 new jobs in November. The underlying data also showed signs of increased labor demand as the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent against calls for a 3.8 percent increase.

ISM Services, December (Friday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 52.5/52.7
• Actual ISM Services index: 50.6

Service sector confidence fell more than expected in December, as the index dropped from 52.7 to 50.6 against calls for a more modest decline. The larger-than-expected drop in the index was primarily due to a slowdown in service sector hiring.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of January 8

Trade balance, November (Tuesday)
The international trade deficit is set to increase modestly in November, which would mark three consecutive months of rising deficits if estimates hold.

Consumer Price Index, December (Thursday)
Headline consumer inflation is set to increase on a year-over-year basis in December, but core inflation is set to fall to its lowest level since May 2021.

Producer Price Index, December (Friday)
Producer inflation is also expected to rise on a headline basis in December, with year-over-year producer prices set to increase by 1.3 percent. Core producer inflation is set to fall to 1.9 percent on a year-over-year basis.