Economic Release Snapshot: Hiring Accelerates in April

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of May 1

ISM Manufacturing, April (Monday)

• Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 46.8/46.3
• Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 47.1

Manufacturer confidence improved more than expected in April; however, the index remained in contractionary territory due, in part, to a continued slowdown in new orders for the manufacturing industry.

ISM Services, April (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior ISM Services index: 51.8/51.2
• Actual ISM Services index: 51.9

Service sector confidence also improved more than expected in April. Despite improvements in both service sector and manufacturing confidence, business confidence levels remained below post-pandemic highs.

FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

The Fed announced a 25 bp interest rate hike at this meeting, which was in line with investor and economist expectations and brought the upper limit for the federal funds rate to 5.25 percent. The press release and comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed may pause its current hiking cycle as early as its next meeting in June.

International trade report, March (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior trade deficit: –$63.1 billion/–$70.6 billion
• Actual trade deficit: –$64.2 billion

The trade deficit declined less than expected in March. Imports fell 0.3 percent during the month, while exports increased 2.1 percent.

Employment report, April (Friday)

• Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +188,000/+165,000
• Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +253,000

Hiring accelerated in April, as 253,000 jobs were added during the month against calls for a more modest 185,000 jobs. The strong result indicates that the labor market remained resilient despite uncertainty created by the recent high-profile bank failures.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of May 8

Consumer Price Index, April (Wednesday)

Headline consumer prices are expected to show a modest increase in April, while core inflation is set to slow during the month.

Producer Price Index, April (Thursday)

Producer prices are expected to increase modestly in April following the surprising drop in producer prices in March. On a year-over-year basis, producer inflation is set to slow on a core and headline basis.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, May, preliminary (Friday)

The first estimate for consumer sentiment in May is projected to show a modest decline in confidence for the month, as the impact of the First Republic Bank sale is expected to weigh on sentiment.