Economic Release Snapshot: Headline Prices Rise in July

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of August 7

Consumer Price Index, July (Thursday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.0%/+4.8%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.3%/+4.7%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.2%/+4.7%

While headline consumer inflation increased on a year-over-year basis, core consumer inflation continued to moderate on a year-over-year basis in July. The improvement in core prices highlighted the progress we’ve seen this year in lowering consumer inflationary pressure.

Producer Price Index, July (Friday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.0%/–0.1%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.3%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+2.4%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +0.7%/+2.3%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +0.8%/+2.4%

Producer inflation picked up on a year-over-year basis in July; however, headline producer inflation remained well below the Fed’s 2 percent target during the month.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, August, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 71.2/71.6
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 71.2

Consumer sentiment fell modestly in August, which was expected after the index surged past forecasts in July. Encouragingly, consumer inflation expectations fell during the month, which signaled that the Fed’s attempts to combat inflation resonated with consumers.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of August 14

Retail sales, July (Tuesday)

Economists expect to see four consecutive months of retail sales growth in July.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, August (Tuesday)

Home builder confidence is expected to remain flat in August, which would leave the index in expansionary territory for the third consecutive month.

Housing starts and building permits, July (Wednesday)

Both housing starts and building permits are set to increase in July following the drop in June, as high levels of home builder confidence and home buyer demand are expected to support faster construction growth.

Industrial production, July (Wednesday)

Industrial production is set to rebound in July after falling in both May and June, with demand for manufactured goods on the rise.

FOMC meeting minutes, July (Wednesday)

The Fed’s July meeting minutes are set to be released on Wednesday. The Fed hiked rates 25 bps at this meeting, and the minutes will be widely scrutinized for hints on the Fed’s plans for the future path of monetary policy.