Economic Release Snapshot: GDP Growth Slows in the First Quarter

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of April 22

Durable goods orders, March, preliminary (Thursday)

• Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: +2.5%/+1.3%
• Actual durable goods orders change: +2.6%
• Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: +0.2%/+0.3%
• Actual core durable goods orders change: +0.2%

Durable goods orders continued to improve in March, signaling solid business investment during the month.

First-quarter GDP growth, advance estimate (Thursday)

• Expected/prior quarter GDP growth: +2.5%/+3.4%
• Actual GDP growth: +1.6%

Economic growth slowed during the first quarter, with an annualized GDP growth of 1.6 percent. Personal consumption growth remained healthy during the quarter, but international trade and a fall in business inventories led to slower-than-expected economic growth to start the year.

Personal spending and personal income, March (Friday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.5%/+0.3%
• Actual personal income change: +0.5%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.8%/+0.6%
• Actual personal spending change: +0.8%

Personal income and spending continued to rise in March. The larger-than-expected increase in personal spending was in line with similar improvements in retail sales growth during the month.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of April 29

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, April (Tuesday)
Consumer confidence is set to fall modestly in April, which would mark three consecutive months of declining confidence if estimates hold.

FOMC rate decision, May (Wednesday)
The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the conclusion of its May meeting, but Fed chair Jerome Powell may hint at a potential rate cut at future meetings in the post-meeting press conference.

ISM Manufacturing, April (Wednesday)
Manufacturer confidence is expected to fall in April but remain in expansionary territory for the second consecutive month.

International trade balance, March (Thursday)
The trade deficit is set to increase modestly in March due to a rise in imports during the month.

Employment report, April (Friday)
Economists expect to see a strong 250,000 jobs added during the month following an unexpected surge in hiring in March.

ISM Services, April (Friday)
Service sector confidence is expected to improve after falling more than expected in March.