Economic Release Snapshot: GDP Growth Accelerates in Second Quarter

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of July 24

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, July (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month consumer confidence: 112.0/110.1
• Actual consumer confidence: 117.0

Consumer confidence improved more than expected in July, bringing the index to a two-year high and highlighting the continued resilience of the consumer. Improved consumer views on the present economic situation and more optimism for the future drove the improvement.

FOMC rate decision, July (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior federal funds rate, upper bound: 5.50%/5.25%
• Actual federal funds rate, upper bound: 5.50%

The Fed hiked the federal funds rate 25 bps at its July meeting, which was widely expected by investors and economists. Looking forward, the central bank isn’t expected to announce any further hikes this year, but the outlook could change on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

Durable goods orders, June, preliminary (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: +1.3%/+2.0%
• Actual durable goods orders change: +4.7%
• Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: +0.1%/+0.7%
• Actual core durable goods orders change: +0.6%

Headline and core durable goods orders increased more than expected in June, signaling continued solid business investment to end the first half of the year.

2023 second-quarter GDP growth, advanced report

• Expected/prior GDP annualized QoQ: +1.8%/+2.0%
• Actual GDP annualized QoQ: +2.4%

The first look at second-quarter GDP growth showed faster economic growth than expected, with the 2.4 percent annualized increase beating both the 2 percent growth rate in the first quarter and economist estimates for a more modest 1.8 percent increase.

Personal spending and personal income, June (Friday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.5%/+0.5%
• Actual personal income change: +0.3%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.4%/+0.2%
• Actual personal spending change: +0.5%

Personal spending increased more than expected in June, with both headline and inflation-adjusted spending beating economist expectations during the month.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of July 31

ISM Manufacturing, July (Tuesday)

Manufacturer confidence is expected to improve modestly in July, but the index is set to remain in contractionary territory.

ISM Services, July (Thursday)

Service sector confidence is set to fall slightly in July after surging past expectations in June.

Employment report, July (Friday)

Economists expect to see continued solid hiring in July, with forecasts calling for 200,000 additional jobs.