Economic Release Snapshot: GDP Growth Accelerates in Second Quarter

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of July 22

Existing home sales, June (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales change: –3.2%/–0.7%
• Actual existing home sales change: –5.4%

The pace of existing home sales slowed more than expected in June as high mortgage rates and rising prices weighed on home buyers.

2024 second-quarter GDP growth, annualized (Thursday)

• Expected/prior quarter GDP growth: +2.0%/+1.4%
• Actual GDP growth: +2.8%

Economic growth accelerated more than expected in the second quarter, partly due to better-than-expected personal consumption growth. This marked eight consecutive quarters of solid economic growth and highlighted the current health of the economy.

Durable goods orders, June, preliminary (Thursday)

• Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: +0.3%/+0.1%
• Actual durable goods orders change: –6.6%
• Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: +0.2%/–0.1%
• Actual core durable goods orders change: +0.5%

Headline durable goods orders came in below expectations in June, largely due to a slowdown in volatile non-defense aircraft orders. Core orders, on the other hand, showed a solid 0.5 percent rise, indicating solid business investment.

Personal spending and personal income, June (Friday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Actual personal income change: +0.2%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.3%/+0.4%
• Actual personal spending change: +0.3%

Personal income and spending continued to improve in June, with income growth coming in slightly below expectations while spending was in line with economist forecasts.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of July 29

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, July (Tuesday)
Consumer confidence is expected to fall modestly in July for the second consecutive month.

FOMC rate decision, July (Wednesday)
The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its July meeting; however, economists and investors will be keeping a close eye on Fed chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference for hints on the future path of monetary policy.

ISM Manufacturing, July (Thursday)
Manufacturer confidence is expected to improve modestly in July after falling for the third consecutive month in June.

Employment report, July (Friday)
Hiring is expected to cool yet remain in healthy territory in July, with 175,000 new jobs expected. The unemployment rate is set to remain unchanged at 4.1 percent during the month.