Economic Release Snapshot: Economy Rebounds in the Third Quarter

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of October 24

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, October (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior Consumer Confidence Index: 105.9/107.8
• Actual Consumer Confidence Index: 102.5
  

Durable goods orders, September preliminary (Thursday)

• Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: +0.6%/+0.2%
• Actual durable goods orders change: +0.4%
• Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: +0.2%/+0.0%
• Actual core durable goods orders change: –0.5%

Both headline and core durable goods orders came in below expectations in September, signaling slowing business spending.

Third-quarter GDP growth, advance estimate (Thursday)

• Expected/prior annualized GDP growth: +2.4%/–0.6%
• Actual annualized GDP growth: +2.6%
• Expected/prior annualized personal consumption: +1.0%/+2.0%
• Actual annualized personal consumption: +1.4%

The third-quarter GDP report showed that the economy rebounded and grew during the quarter, following a 0.6 percent decline in the second quarter. This better-than-expected result was driven by improvements in international trade, as exports surged while imports slowed.

Personal spending and personal income, September (Friday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Actual personal income change: +0.4%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.4%/+0.6%
• Actual personal spending change: +0.6%

Both personal income and spending increased in September. This marks two consecutive months of strong spending growth, signaling continued strength for the American consumer.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of October 31

ISM manufacturing, October (Tuesday)

Manufacturer confidence is expected to decline modestly during the month yet remain in expansionary territory.

FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

The Fed is expected to hike the federal funds rate 75 bps at its November meeting, as the central bank aims to tighten monetary policy to tamp down high inflation levels.

ISM services, October (Thursday)

Service sector confidence is also expected to decline modestly in October, which would mark two consecutive months of declining service sector confidence.

Employment report, October (Friday)

The pace of hiring is set to slow again in October; however, even with the anticipated slowdown, hiring is expected to remain solid on a historical basis.